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Experts estimate thousands missing from WY workers

by Carrie Haderlie

The Sheridan Press

Via Wyoming News Exchange

SHERIDAN — Experts estimate that thousands of people are missing from Wyoming’s workforce, but whether that is due to the pandemic, “quiet quitting” or a state population that is quickly approaching retirement age is unknown.

Citing data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wenlin Liu, chief economist for the state’s Economic Analysis Division, said Wyoming’s labor force is still more than 7,000 people, or 2.5%, smaller than it was pre-COVID-19.

The percentage of people aged 16 and older included in Wyoming’s labor force, or the sum of employed and unemployed persons, is also down. In January of 2022, the labor force participation rate hovered just over 63%. The national average is just under 63%, but as the U.S. rate continues to rebound, the Wyoming rate has been flat or down, according to Liu.

“The difference (between the U.S. rate and Wyoming’s rate) used to be about 6 percentage points, but is only less than one percentage now,” Liu said. 

That closing gap could be because Wyoming has one of the largest baby boomer population proportions in the country, he continued.

“This cohort, aged 58 to 76 in 2022, has been quickly approaching retirement ages in recent years, and some of them may decide to retire early because of COVID-19,” Liu said.

According to a September report by the National Bureau of Economic Research called “The Impacts of COVID-19 Illnesses on Workers,” COVID-19 illnesses have continued to persistently reduce labor supply. 

The authors estimate that workers with week-long COVID-19 work absences are 7 percentage points less likely to be in the labor force one year later, compared to otherwise-similar workers who do not miss a week of work for health reasons. 

The estimates suggest COVID-19 illnesses have reduced the U.S. labor force by approximately 500,000 people, for an average forgone earning per COVID-19 absence of at least $9,000. 

The U.S Chamber of Commerce also estimates that in 2021, businesses added an “unprecedented” 3.8 million jobs, but at the same time, workforce participation remained below pre-pandemic levels. The national organization estimated in August that there were 3.4 million fewer Americans working over the summer as compared to February of 2020.

“There are different estimates of this. Some say there are two million workers missing; some say there are five million workers missing, from what there would have been, had the balance not been upset,” University of Wyoming Economist Rob Godby said.

Why workers are missing in Wyoming could be due to average population age, the pandemic, or “quiet quitting,” a trend that has taken off on social media.

According to the Harvard Business Review, “quiet quitting” is driven by many of the same factors as actual resignations, but refers to workers opting out of tasks beyond one’s assigned duties, or becoming less “psychologically invested” in work. 

“Quiet quitters,” according to the Harvard Business Review, may still show up for work but will be less willing to stay late, show up early or take on non-mandatory duties.

“If we have this phenomenon of quiet quitting, if the workers aren’t doing as much, you have a productivity consequence,” Godby said. “So now, you need more workers to get the same amount done.”

According to a 2022 report by Lisa Knapp, senior research analyst at the Wyoming Department of Workforce Services, called “How the Global Pandemic Affected Wyoming Workers,” all sectors of the country’s economy and its workers were affected by the pandemic due to several factors, including business closures, supply chain disruptions and increases or decreases in product demand. 

Nationally, 52% of all businesses had employees who did not work at some point between January 2020 and September 2020, and of those, 51% paid some or all of their employees.

Fast forward two years, and experts say there are still fewer workers in the workforce to do the same or more jobs than pre-pandemic levels. That means businesses must get by with fewer people and will likely have to pay the workers who are left more.

Whether the worker shortage is due to the pandemic or something else entirely, the cumulative effect is felt both by the small business and the consumer.

“You might see that some businesses can’t stay open as long. It is not uncommon to find that businesses are closed Mondays at lunch, for example, or that fast food restaurants may not open the lobby and just open the drive through,” Godby said. “The reason they do that is to economize on the workers they need.”

This can contribute to rising prices, and consumers may have a hard time finding help in retail stores and restaurants. Contractors and service workers in other areas may be scarce. Godby said the worker shortage could be temporary, and that the participation rate and the workforce may recover to what it was several years ago, especially as prices continue to rise.

“It could be that the portion of the population that was willing to work goes back to what it was before,” he said.

But it could also be indicative of a societal shift.

“The pandemic may have taught us, though, that we need to value some things that we once took for granted. It is possible that this has led to a long-term shift in people’s attitudes and preferences, and not being willing to work as much as they used to,” he said.

 

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